Not sure why, but my persistent pre flop leaks have improved a TON this month. In the past when I've struggled with specific spots like this, it's felt like I've worked on them forever with little to no improvement, then very suddenly hit a point where they got way better and it never looked back. So fingers crossed that's the case here and I can move on to new things to fix.
Speaking of which, I am costing myself unnecessary $ pretty regularly by peeling too many flops and giving up on too many turns. I mean, if I'm gonna peel with second pair, I can't just fold every time he fires a blank turn. Which is more or less what I'm doing right now. The problem has developed because with the mass tabling I have less detailed reads, and right now using poker co-pilot it's even worse (they don't have a turn cbet stat, among other problems).
I'm not entirely sure how to fix it, whether I should be raising a few more flops with marginal holdings, or continuing on more turns (either peeling again, or raising). I don't really think the actual number of flops I'm calling is too high in a vacuum, it's just that I'm doing it too often without a clear plan for the rest of the hand. For now folding more flops will put me in these spots less often and hopefully leave me more energy/focus/whatever to handle them better. If I start feeling like I am handling it better, maybe I'll start floating a bit more again.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Live Music
In Santa Cruz, California. We had time between load-in and sound check so we walked down to the beach. Absolutely perfect day. There was this giant dead sea lion on the beach. It looked strange. Would like to say it looked beautiful, or regal or powerful or something, but it just didn't.
Anyway, that's just an aside. In Santa Cruz, California. Sitting at the back of the room as the opener plays. They are called Fruition. They are friends of our drummer Tyler's (he plays with them sometimes, including tonight) and they happened to be down here recording, so they asked today if they could play a set before us. One of their singer/guitar players is named Jake, and he's from Tyler's hometown, so we've seen him several times over the years in various bands and whatnot. He's a talented guy. I don't know anything about his situation, but I assume unless he's dealing drugs or has an inheritance or something then he's probably living below what many people would consider the poverty line. (Again, I don't know about him personally, but that's the norm for people pursuing music the way he is). But he's going after it, and every single time I hear him, he's better. He's always been a good musician, but he's become a great musician/singer. But more than that, he's becoming an artist.
What it really makes me think about is how beautiful, regal, powerful live music is. We saw a band on tour this summer called Alice Potter & The Nocturnals. (Maybe Grace Potter? something like that). They were almost like a 60's tribute band (Woodstock era 60's, not Beach Boys). Not covers, original music, I just mean style-wise. But whatever, holy shit were they good. Blow you away good. Heard her on the satellite radio the other day, and it wasn't quite the same. But live? They have it going on in abundance. All of which is an aside as well, by the way. (Maybe blogs are, in the main, just one big aside).
The most powerful thing by far, of course, is going to see an artist who you love, whose songs resonate. I don't go to live concerts that much, in part because it's so emotionally draining to hear live performances of multiple songs that mean a lot to you. In succession. Over a short period. In a communal setting. But even though I have felt near destroyed after more than a few concerts, I can see from a distance that it's a good destruction.
We do have tickets, almost by accident, for U2 coming up. I think I can get through that one rather intact, tho.
Anyway, that's just an aside. In Santa Cruz, California. Sitting at the back of the room as the opener plays. They are called Fruition. They are friends of our drummer Tyler's (he plays with them sometimes, including tonight) and they happened to be down here recording, so they asked today if they could play a set before us. One of their singer/guitar players is named Jake, and he's from Tyler's hometown, so we've seen him several times over the years in various bands and whatnot. He's a talented guy. I don't know anything about his situation, but I assume unless he's dealing drugs or has an inheritance or something then he's probably living below what many people would consider the poverty line. (Again, I don't know about him personally, but that's the norm for people pursuing music the way he is). But he's going after it, and every single time I hear him, he's better. He's always been a good musician, but he's become a great musician/singer. But more than that, he's becoming an artist.
What it really makes me think about is how beautiful, regal, powerful live music is. We saw a band on tour this summer called Alice Potter & The Nocturnals. (Maybe Grace Potter? something like that). They were almost like a 60's tribute band (Woodstock era 60's, not Beach Boys). Not covers, original music, I just mean style-wise. But whatever, holy shit were they good. Blow you away good. Heard her on the satellite radio the other day, and it wasn't quite the same. But live? They have it going on in abundance. All of which is an aside as well, by the way. (Maybe blogs are, in the main, just one big aside).
The most powerful thing by far, of course, is going to see an artist who you love, whose songs resonate. I don't go to live concerts that much, in part because it's so emotionally draining to hear live performances of multiple songs that mean a lot to you. In succession. Over a short period. In a communal setting. But even though I have felt near destroyed after more than a few concerts, I can see from a distance that it's a good destruction.
We do have tickets, almost by accident, for U2 coming up. I think I can get through that one rather intact, tho.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Bad Calls Gone Good
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/850646
Actually, I don’t even know if it’s a bad call. I just know that if I take this line I am paying off a lot and kind of flying in the dark. Maybe that’s fine, but I don’t really feel like it’s a good line overall. Maybe bet/call turn is better.
The thinking, for what it’s worth, is by c/c’ing the turn I put some bluffs in his range (if he was floating the flop, he’s definitely bluffing this turn) and allow myself a chance to hit my 10-outer when he does have the flush.
I was inclined to fold the river, but I just thought I’d seemed so weak that his range was not necessarily that polarized. I wasn’t only beating bluffs. He could be value betting his two pair type hands or even a rivered top pair, if he’s inclined to VB thin. Which I believe he probably is.
Yet c/c’ing two streets just seems bad. I dunno. Poker is hard.
Actually, I don’t even know if it’s a bad call. I just know that if I take this line I am paying off a lot and kind of flying in the dark. Maybe that’s fine, but I don’t really feel like it’s a good line overall. Maybe bet/call turn is better.
The thinking, for what it’s worth, is by c/c’ing the turn I put some bluffs in his range (if he was floating the flop, he’s definitely bluffing this turn) and allow myself a chance to hit my 10-outer when he does have the flush.
I was inclined to fold the river, but I just thought I’d seemed so weak that his range was not necessarily that polarized. I wasn’t only beating bluffs. He could be value betting his two pair type hands or even a rivered top pair, if he’s inclined to VB thin. Which I believe he probably is.
Yet c/c’ing two streets just seems bad. I dunno. Poker is hard.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Lucky Rivers
I used to feel somewhat guilty when I sucked out. That passed a long time ago. Now I kinda like it. Which flies in the face, I suppose, of Willinnewhaven’s advice to not care about results. But I don’t think I like it specifically because I dragged the pot (although you would imagine that’s a factor). It’s more because it helps take the edge off when it happens the other way. Like, ‘look, ma, I’m not cursed! I can get lucky too’.
In this one I think villain donks with any K, and will have a hard time letting it go. He obv looks committed on the turn, which he probably was even without improving but as it turns out he was not only committed but ahead. (Yeah, the overbet is a little worrisome, but this particular player I still thought I'd be ahead way more often than not. TP is definitely the stone cold nuts to him).
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/845592
When I click it back in the next hand and he shoves I’m like 95% sure I’m good. Oh well. Saved by the turn (just realized that means blog title doesn't work -- too late to change it now).
http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/845594
Speaking of click it back, I really can’t say enough about how well it works as a value line. And the beauty is, you can also mix in bluffs because if your opponent has absolutely nothing it’s still hard for him to continue. So even if someone has been paying attention enough to see me do it a few times, I think my range is polarized in a way that makes it tough to counter. With 24 tables going these days, I’m sure I am not putting good regs to many tough decisions, so any relatively simple way to get a bit tricker is a good thing.
But anyway, villain here actually has reasonable TAGish stats (despite the not very TAGgy preflop call). I guess he just won’t stand for being min three bet post flop.
Boise DoubleTree
First, the ridiculously long hallways. Who are they kidding? What are they compensating for? And they don't have wireless internet in the rooms. Come on, be reasonable. It's two thousand and fucking nine. Even Super 8's all have wireless internet. The Super 8's in, like, Alaska all have wireless internet.
I remember, as children, we would go down to Seattle to watch the Mariners, and we would stay at the DoubleTree in Bellevue. Man, that was a snazzy hotel. They didn't have wireless internet, cause it hadn't been invented yet, but I have every confidence that, if it had existed, the Bellevue DoubleTree would have had it. If the Bellevue DoubleTree of the 80's could see the Boise DoubleTree of today, it would be chagrined. Of this I am certain.
No More Results
I've decided I will no longer post poker results in this blog. I don't think I have posted results that much, anyway, but I am going to make a total point of not commenting on big winning or losing sessions. There are a number of reasons for this decision. Here are a few of them:
- there's a guy in the cardplayer forums right now (as there often is) going off about how terrible he's been running. he sounds like a complete idiot who does not understand the first thing about poker. i do not want to be that guy.
- i aint superstitious, but nothing brings on a doomswitch quicker than a brag session. even if it's just in my head, something seems to go wrong as soon as i say it's going right.
- it's kind of garish to talk about how much you make in general, why talk about in poker?
- the 'results' posts don't paint an accurate picture of how things are going anyway, as I tend to post more about it when variance is punishing me than when it's going swimmingly.
- too many posts that start 'i'm running bad', or, 'i'm on a heater' gets old. i'd like to post more about specific hands, or at least strategies and approaches. the occasional variance blog is okay, cause it's obviously a huge part of poker and it really does blow my feeble little mind fairly regularly, but it shouldn't make up the majority of my poker blogs.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Glee Sucks
A great TV series is a wondrous gift to the world. You get yourself the DVD's, and like once a year you can watch the whole damn thing again. If you are a frequent traveler, it's just about the best thing imaginable.
So I get excited when people get excited about a TV show. And the critics definitely seem to be excited about the new show 'Glee'. Which is odd. Cause it sucks.
I can see why people want to like it. I can see the potential. But it's just not funny. And nobody's likable. And the plot is a snorefest. And quirky <> fun. Not automatically. And Jane Lynch already did what she's doing now. In about 15 movies. Each one of which was better than this. And the whole 'no laugh track' thing would be better if I was laughing at home. Preferably on the outside, but I'd take even a slight inner feeling of bemusement.
Maybe it'll get better, it's my solemn wish that it does. But considering it's apparently already great, I'm not optimistic.
Poker On The Mac
Yeah, fuck it. I'm done with VMWare Fusion, and the bullshit Windows on the Mac. I downloaded a free trial of Poker CoPilot, and I fired up PokerStars in the Mac OS. And suddenly, magically, everything runs smooth.
I messed around for a while just 4-tabling. That was fun, it'd been quite a while and I was almost shocked how different an experience it is after a couple months of as many tables as the computer can handle. But after a while I just said screw it, got 'er up to 24 tables, and there was nary a lag to be found. Very encouraging, cause I feel like I'll be able to play 24 tables on the road (when there's good internet at least). And also, though I didn't play that long, I didn't find 24 tables to be much harder than the 16 I'd gotten used to playing.
Poker CoPilot would be an amazing program if it was three or so years ago. But compared to the level HEM has gotten to, it's pretty weak. There's only maybe 15 or so stats total. But the HUD works great (it's actually maybe a little simpler, in a good way, like to use, than it's far more developed PC equivalents). And it tracks your sessions great. Apparently it can slow down quite a bit as the database fills up with hands, which given the amount I play will be an issue. But realistically, if PokerTracker 3 comes through with it's promise to release a Mac version in the fall, I won't be on Poker CoPilot that long anyway.
The biggest problem by far with poker on the Mac is the lack of an AHK, Table Ninja-like program. It's really hard to join tables while keeping the other ~20 going (which Table Ninja automates, of course). And you don't realize how much the hot keys help, instead of having to click the mouse for every single action, until you don't have them. But even if it's far from ideal, it's a bazillion times better than all the freeze-ups and lag folds I was getting with increasing regularity. Plus, I just read about an AHK program being developed for PokerStars on the Mac. If it's halfway-decent, then even that problem is solved.
Shoulda just switched over to playing in the MacOS a long time ago.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Elevator
Got in the elevator this afternoon and there were already four people on it. It was kind of awkward. You know the way elevators can be.
So I felt self-conscious, and just for something to do looked at my watch. Only I wasn't wearing one. But I wasn't looking to really see the time, I was just looking to kill a couple floors. So I didn't immediately clue in that I wasn't wearing one. And by the time I did clue in, I had been looking at my wrist kind of a long time for somebody not wearing a watch. And I kept looking even longer as I considered whether there was some kind of maneuver I could do now that would make it less weird that I was staring at a non-existent watch for several seconds.
I couldn't think of anything, so I just put my wrist back down. Then I pretended to check my iPhone for new email, even though there is no reception in the elevator shaft.
So I felt self-conscious, and just for something to do looked at my watch. Only I wasn't wearing one. But I wasn't looking to really see the time, I was just looking to kill a couple floors. So I didn't immediately clue in that I wasn't wearing one. And by the time I did clue in, I had been looking at my wrist kind of a long time for somebody not wearing a watch. And I kept looking even longer as I considered whether there was some kind of maneuver I could do now that would make it less weird that I was staring at a non-existent watch for several seconds.
I couldn't think of anything, so I just put my wrist back down. Then I pretended to check my iPhone for new email, even though there is no reception in the elevator shaft.
Poker Must Be For Me
I mean, really. If it can go as wrong as it has for the last several days, and I still like playing the game, I must be meant to play.
Okay, first off, the technical issues. Without getting too far into the deets, I've been trying to improve the performance of the laptop for pokerz. It's a Mac running Windows (cause some of the programs I want to use don't run on Mac OS), and it was no problem until I got into mass tabling. It starts freaking out anywhere between 12-16 tables, which is pretty frustrating. So I found this guy who can do some technical whatnots to make it run better, but we've been hitting snag after snag. I don't want to write seventeen paragraphs about this (though I could), but it has been terrible. Every time I think it's solved, something else pops up. And because I've been trying to test it, I've been pushing it to the edge and as a result have had a couple crashes and several mass-table timeout piss offs. Nothing worse than a 70/40 open shoving into my flopped top set, and I can't fucking call cause the computer's losing its mind. I try to convince myself his backdoor flush draw was gonna get there, but it's cold comfort. I'm not sure how much $ I've lost to this shit, but its more than a little for sure.
I am going to have my brand spanking new PC on Wednesday, and it will help immeasurably. But I still gotta figure out something with the laptop. I've been considering just biting the bullet and buying a PC laptop, they're pretty cheap, but I really want to keep the Mac as my main computer (cause Apple is A#1), and I don't want to travel with two laptops. So I'm holding out. Maybe my tech guy will come up with something, or maybe Poker Tracker will finally come through with the Mac version they say is around the bend and I won't need to run windows. We'll see...
Another new development lately is an inordinate amount of misclicks. I'm not talking about the brain fart type misclick. I'm talking about literally my finger is in the wrong spot or I accidentally click the mouse as it's over the button I did not want. I'm pretty sure it's been because I'm trying to deal with the tech stuff at the same time, so I've been popping in and out of the game. Can't remember it really happening before, but this week it's probably cost me cumulatively a couple buy-ins.
Now, the actual game play? Well, that's been easily worse than the technical issues. Again, there's no point going on and on about how bad I've been running. Nobody cares but me, and I already know. But you probably stopped reading long ago, so it's okay if I indulge myself. I know the memory is selective, but I am fairly certain I have never run like this. So many coolers. For example, I just double checked, and I ran AK into AA six times today. Overall just a real smorgasbord of ways to lose. The poker gods have been downright artistic.
For sure the most frustrated I've ever been with how the cards are falling, but I'm not really disheartened overall. Not the way downswings have gotten to me in the past. I mean, don't get me wrong, it really really sucks. Just a few short days ago I was eyeing mixing some 200NL into the sessions, and suddenly I'm back playing 50NL. That blows. But at this point I know these swings are inevitable, and while I'm certainly not guaranteed one going the other way, if I keep putting in the hands odds are I'll eventually get boom switched. Until then, the only real problem is that it's slower collecting VPP's at 50NL. Cause I wasn't counting on the actual gameplay money anyway. I might have to put in more time to get the same bonuses, but I will still get there. And, knock on wood, I won't be at 50NL long enough for it to have much impact at all. But we'll see.
Interestingly, reviewing my last session right now, I only stacked an opponent twice, and I got stacked six times. And of those eight hands total, the two I won were quite clearly the ones I played the worst. Not quite enough evidence to try a George Constanza style opposite approach, but still...
Okay, first off, the technical issues. Without getting too far into the deets, I've been trying to improve the performance of the laptop for pokerz. It's a Mac running Windows (cause some of the programs I want to use don't run on Mac OS), and it was no problem until I got into mass tabling. It starts freaking out anywhere between 12-16 tables, which is pretty frustrating. So I found this guy who can do some technical whatnots to make it run better, but we've been hitting snag after snag. I don't want to write seventeen paragraphs about this (though I could), but it has been terrible. Every time I think it's solved, something else pops up. And because I've been trying to test it, I've been pushing it to the edge and as a result have had a couple crashes and several mass-table timeout piss offs. Nothing worse than a 70/40 open shoving into my flopped top set, and I can't fucking call cause the computer's losing its mind. I try to convince myself his backdoor flush draw was gonna get there, but it's cold comfort. I'm not sure how much $ I've lost to this shit, but its more than a little for sure.
I am going to have my brand spanking new PC on Wednesday, and it will help immeasurably. But I still gotta figure out something with the laptop. I've been considering just biting the bullet and buying a PC laptop, they're pretty cheap, but I really want to keep the Mac as my main computer (cause Apple is A#1), and I don't want to travel with two laptops. So I'm holding out. Maybe my tech guy will come up with something, or maybe Poker Tracker will finally come through with the Mac version they say is around the bend and I won't need to run windows. We'll see...
Another new development lately is an inordinate amount of misclicks. I'm not talking about the brain fart type misclick. I'm talking about literally my finger is in the wrong spot or I accidentally click the mouse as it's over the button I did not want. I'm pretty sure it's been because I'm trying to deal with the tech stuff at the same time, so I've been popping in and out of the game. Can't remember it really happening before, but this week it's probably cost me cumulatively a couple buy-ins.
Now, the actual game play? Well, that's been easily worse than the technical issues. Again, there's no point going on and on about how bad I've been running. Nobody cares but me, and I already know. But you probably stopped reading long ago, so it's okay if I indulge myself. I know the memory is selective, but I am fairly certain I have never run like this. So many coolers. For example, I just double checked, and I ran AK into AA six times today. Overall just a real smorgasbord of ways to lose. The poker gods have been downright artistic.
For sure the most frustrated I've ever been with how the cards are falling, but I'm not really disheartened overall. Not the way downswings have gotten to me in the past. I mean, don't get me wrong, it really really sucks. Just a few short days ago I was eyeing mixing some 200NL into the sessions, and suddenly I'm back playing 50NL. That blows. But at this point I know these swings are inevitable, and while I'm certainly not guaranteed one going the other way, if I keep putting in the hands odds are I'll eventually get boom switched. Until then, the only real problem is that it's slower collecting VPP's at 50NL. Cause I wasn't counting on the actual gameplay money anyway. I might have to put in more time to get the same bonuses, but I will still get there. And, knock on wood, I won't be at 50NL long enough for it to have much impact at all. But we'll see.
Interestingly, reviewing my last session right now, I only stacked an opponent twice, and I got stacked six times. And of those eight hands total, the two I won were quite clearly the ones I played the worst. Not quite enough evidence to try a George Constanza style opposite approach, but still...
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Moving On Thursday
The contractor got (or will get) the reno’s done a bit early, so we’re able to move on Thursday instead of next weekend. Which is awesome, because I’ll actually be home for it. It was truly one of the most frustrating evenings of my life a few weeks back, when we were driving from Columbus to Cincinnati (post-gig) and my very pregnant wife was beside herself trying to get everything done in time for the movers to come in the morning. Talk about your helpless feelings. Even though we took steps to ensure the move-in would not be a repeat of that debacle, it’s still much, much better that I’m going to be home for it.
Except, of course, that this now means I’m going to have to do, you know, the work.
Except, of course, that this now means I’m going to have to do, you know, the work.
True Confessions Of A Station
Like a lot of poker players, many of my leaks revolve around calling too much. I am famous in certain circles for calling too many 3bets. I call too much in the blinds. I peel too many flops. And I pay off too many rivers.
Some of these are fairly defendable, and would be okay with some fine-tuning. For instance, there is a certain type of opponent where it’s almost never wrong to call a river bet with top pair or better, and is often not wrong to call with any made hand. In fact, I’d say calling the inevitable river bluff against these guys is one of my most consistently profitable spots in poker. But if I’m not focused enough, I just keep on making that same call against super passive fish (justifying to myself that, hey, a fish is a fish – can’t fold here), or against agro regs (who may in fact bluff a lot of rivers, but know the difference between a believable bluff and an obvious one).
Same with peeling flops. Just gotta be the right opponent. But the calling too many 3bets, and calling too much in the blinds? No good. In fact, I have very little doubt that I would be farther ahead financially in poker than I am right now if I had a policy of never calling a raise or reraise out of position. Of course that would be a ridiculous policy to adopt. But I have bled so much from these two leaks that only reraising/folding (mainly folding, obv) when facing action out of position would have surely been far less damaging.
The good news is, it’s improved a lot. I used to have an absolutely insanely low F3B. Like, in the 20’s. It’s now around 50. I don’t believe it needs to be as low as some people do. I think in the high 60’s maybe. I’m definitely there when I’m playing well, and I bring it crashing back down when I’m not. It’s getting there, tho. Oh so slowly, but getting there.
I still don’t understand why poker growth takes me so damn long (although I do know many poker players, including some who end up in the upper echelon, have had a surprisingly slow rise). I remember for the longest time I wanted to increase the difference in VPIP from early to late positions. And while there was some improvement, it was staying with 5 points from UTG to the BTN. For months it was a goal to increase the gap, and I just couldn’t do it. Then I literally remember one day checking my stats and realizing that I was there. Have no recollection of what light went on, why it suddenly changed, but it’s never gone back.
Now with the calling of 3-bets, I’m not sure why it’s gotten better generally. And I’m not sure why regressing in this area is still the first sign I’m playing bad. But it’s that latter point that made me write a blog (which really should be a journal entry, but it’s too late now). Because I’ve realized that not only is calling too many 3bets a good indicator of being off my game, fixing it is also a good way to save a session. There’s some connection, presently, between being overall focused and this particular leak. It’s symbiotic, and for the time being it seems I can’t plug this leak without bringing my whole game up with it.
Good to know.
Some of these are fairly defendable, and would be okay with some fine-tuning. For instance, there is a certain type of opponent where it’s almost never wrong to call a river bet with top pair or better, and is often not wrong to call with any made hand. In fact, I’d say calling the inevitable river bluff against these guys is one of my most consistently profitable spots in poker. But if I’m not focused enough, I just keep on making that same call against super passive fish (justifying to myself that, hey, a fish is a fish – can’t fold here), or against agro regs (who may in fact bluff a lot of rivers, but know the difference between a believable bluff and an obvious one).
Same with peeling flops. Just gotta be the right opponent. But the calling too many 3bets, and calling too much in the blinds? No good. In fact, I have very little doubt that I would be farther ahead financially in poker than I am right now if I had a policy of never calling a raise or reraise out of position. Of course that would be a ridiculous policy to adopt. But I have bled so much from these two leaks that only reraising/folding (mainly folding, obv) when facing action out of position would have surely been far less damaging.
The good news is, it’s improved a lot. I used to have an absolutely insanely low F3B. Like, in the 20’s. It’s now around 50. I don’t believe it needs to be as low as some people do. I think in the high 60’s maybe. I’m definitely there when I’m playing well, and I bring it crashing back down when I’m not. It’s getting there, tho. Oh so slowly, but getting there.
I still don’t understand why poker growth takes me so damn long (although I do know many poker players, including some who end up in the upper echelon, have had a surprisingly slow rise). I remember for the longest time I wanted to increase the difference in VPIP from early to late positions. And while there was some improvement, it was staying with 5 points from UTG to the BTN. For months it was a goal to increase the gap, and I just couldn’t do it. Then I literally remember one day checking my stats and realizing that I was there. Have no recollection of what light went on, why it suddenly changed, but it’s never gone back.
Now with the calling of 3-bets, I’m not sure why it’s gotten better generally. And I’m not sure why regressing in this area is still the first sign I’m playing bad. But it’s that latter point that made me write a blog (which really should be a journal entry, but it’s too late now). Because I’ve realized that not only is calling too many 3bets a good indicator of being off my game, fixing it is also a good way to save a session. There’s some connection, presently, between being overall focused and this particular leak. It’s symbiotic, and for the time being it seems I can’t plug this leak without bringing my whole game up with it.
Good to know.
Luck V. Skill
Not talking about poker at large. It's, obviously, a skill game with results that are influenced, in the short-term, by luck (the only question being how short is short-term).
What I wonder is how much my results are influenced, from session to session, by how well I play. As opposed to being influenced by the aforementioned short-term luck. It's on my mind because I went on a mini-heater, my biggest in a while, yesterday. Then today was the opposite, a nose dive. This followed a week or so of mainly neutral results, so it was kind of odd to suddenly have two such extreme days.
Obviously these swings are a natural part of poker This is why I have strict bankroll rules, because I cannot predict/control when they hit one way or the other. But in the immediate wake of such an extreme couple days, I think it's worth considering how much better (if at all) I played Thursday than Friday.
And after sitting here, thinking on it for a bit, the only conclusion I can come to is I really have no idea.
Sometimes I'll be mass-tabling and I'll realize nobody's played back at me in at least 15 minutes (which might be like 400 hands). ie, every time I go after a pot, the other person backs off (or calls me down when I have it). Does that mean I'm tuned in, choosing the right spots to stay aggressive? Or is just a total fucking fluke? And on days when I get played back at constantly, nothing seems to work, am I forgetting to read board textures and failing to properly interpret my opponent's stats? Or are flops just hitting their lucky asses way more than they 'should'?
Again, I just don't know. You would have to think, over the long term, that I play better on days I have positive results than on days I don't. But at the same time, it's possible to have great results on one day and poor results the next day, and have played better the second day. In fact, play enough, and it's inevitable that will happen, and not all that rarely.
So I guess the question of how much swings are about luck and how much they are about differences in my level of play is unanswerable. Or at least not answerable without doing a lot of analyzing of a relatively huge sample. I still think it's worth thinking about a bit, because anything that makes me reflect on my play is probably good. Especially in this new era of multi-hour, mass-table sessions, where any predilection towards auto-pilot is very much heightened.
My gut feeling on it is that it's mainly luck, but definitely not all. That the days when I am particularly on or off my game will occasionally coincide with days when the deck is particularly kind or cruel, and extreme results will follow.
Most of the time, both factors will be somewhere in the average range, and I'll continue on my merry middling way.
What I wonder is how much my results are influenced, from session to session, by how well I play. As opposed to being influenced by the aforementioned short-term luck. It's on my mind because I went on a mini-heater, my biggest in a while, yesterday. Then today was the opposite, a nose dive. This followed a week or so of mainly neutral results, so it was kind of odd to suddenly have two such extreme days.
Obviously these swings are a natural part of poker This is why I have strict bankroll rules, because I cannot predict/control when they hit one way or the other. But in the immediate wake of such an extreme couple days, I think it's worth considering how much better (if at all) I played Thursday than Friday.
And after sitting here, thinking on it for a bit, the only conclusion I can come to is I really have no idea.
Sometimes I'll be mass-tabling and I'll realize nobody's played back at me in at least 15 minutes (which might be like 400 hands). ie, every time I go after a pot, the other person backs off (or calls me down when I have it). Does that mean I'm tuned in, choosing the right spots to stay aggressive? Or is just a total fucking fluke? And on days when I get played back at constantly, nothing seems to work, am I forgetting to read board textures and failing to properly interpret my opponent's stats? Or are flops just hitting their lucky asses way more than they 'should'?
Again, I just don't know. You would have to think, over the long term, that I play better on days I have positive results than on days I don't. But at the same time, it's possible to have great results on one day and poor results the next day, and have played better the second day. In fact, play enough, and it's inevitable that will happen, and not all that rarely.
So I guess the question of how much swings are about luck and how much they are about differences in my level of play is unanswerable. Or at least not answerable without doing a lot of analyzing of a relatively huge sample. I still think it's worth thinking about a bit, because anything that makes me reflect on my play is probably good. Especially in this new era of multi-hour, mass-table sessions, where any predilection towards auto-pilot is very much heightened.
My gut feeling on it is that it's mainly luck, but definitely not all. That the days when I am particularly on or off my game will occasionally coincide with days when the deck is particularly kind or cruel, and extreme results will follow.
Most of the time, both factors will be somewhere in the average range, and I'll continue on my merry middling way.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Hoping The Movie Lives Up To The Trailer
Went to 'Paper Heart'. It was charming but kinda boring. Also, I didn't trust it, and didn't know if I was supposed to trust it, so was spending too much mental energy wondering how scripted it was or was not. But still, there are worse ways to spend 90 minutes.
Among the previews was one for 'I Like It Loud'. It's basically a chronicling of Jimmy Page, The Edge, and Jack White hanging out, talking shop, and playing their guitars. While it did look like the movie could get pretentious in spots, on the whole it was a fully exhilarating trailer. I felt pretty much giddy at its conclusion, and I cannot remember the last time I felt so much "can't wait" towards seeing a movie. Of course, expectations are a killer, so I'm trying to tone them down.
Also saw a trailer for a new 'Trailer Park Boys' movie. Didn't see the first movie, and have probably only seen a couple episodes of the TV show start to finish. But I did have a couple laugh out loud (or LOL, as they say on the internet) moments during the preview. Probably won't go see it, tho, unless I'm out of options. I have a bias against that show. Not sure why cause what I've seen is generally pretty amusing. But watching it just makes me feel cheap and dirty.
Among the previews was one for 'I Like It Loud'. It's basically a chronicling of Jimmy Page, The Edge, and Jack White hanging out, talking shop, and playing their guitars. While it did look like the movie could get pretentious in spots, on the whole it was a fully exhilarating trailer. I felt pretty much giddy at its conclusion, and I cannot remember the last time I felt so much "can't wait" towards seeing a movie. Of course, expectations are a killer, so I'm trying to tone them down.
Also saw a trailer for a new 'Trailer Park Boys' movie. Didn't see the first movie, and have probably only seen a couple episodes of the TV show start to finish. But I did have a couple laugh out loud (or LOL, as they say on the internet) moments during the preview. Probably won't go see it, tho, unless I'm out of options. I have a bias against that show. Not sure why cause what I've seen is generally pretty amusing. But watching it just makes me feel cheap and dirty.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)