Oh Yeah. Poker.

Originally this blog (generally speaking) was supposed to be mainly a poker blog, but that's fallen by the wayside lately. There's just something about playing 8 hours, 24-tabling, that makes blogging about it a less than attractive proposition. Short-stacking is less interesting anyway, especially as after a 15k hand day it's kinda hard to remember that tricky spot at 7:30 this morning. Further, I work on strategy with my staker, and I have signed a confidentiality agreement with him. So even if I really wanted to get into what the CO's stats would have to be for me to pop 98s from the BB (which I don't), it would probably be a breach of that agreement.

However, if there's one thing that will get a guy motivated to blog about poker, it's a downswing. And I'm on a doozy right now, a real head-scratcher. You'd think you'd get used to that, but you never really do. You do get used to the swings in general, but for some reason I just can't prepare myself for the epic downer that comes around once in a while. Right now I've had about a dozen consecutive losing sessions, and a couple of them were quite big. I've talked to enough poker players that I understand these things just happen, rationally I understand it, but intuitively, on a base level, it still just makes no sense to me. It just doesn't feel right that I can, for a couple months, grind out a slow and steady, (very) small profit. Then suddenly just have the bottom fall out.

I'm about 99% certain it's totally variance, not my play. With SSing, especially, it's easier to be confident of that. My stats haven't changed, and my ranges haven't changed. Just suddenly when I shove with 99 it's TT, with AJ it's AQ. And even more consistently, if I've got AA and the flop's paired and a maniac with a huge range is calling me down? He's got trips. When you're running good, he's paired the other flop card (or has some other totally non-sensical hand).

Actually, I should clarify that 99% thing tho. I DO think my play has worsened the downswing, if only to a small degree. I haven't had any major tilt, but I've definitely been frustrated and I know there's no way that doesn't creep into my play a bit. What I'm 99% sure of is that worse play didn't start the downswing, and worse play is not the major cause of the downswing continuing.

So. Anyway. After this horrid run I'm down about $5k in the actual games for my SSing experience. But I've earned about $50k in vpp's (based on prorating them versus the value of SuperNova Elite; if I don't make SNE they're worth about 30% less). So even in the midst of an epic downswing, the numbers still work for me. Plus, being staked, I'm only impacted by the losses in the games in that I'm not seeing profit from that part of it. I don't have to personally make up the losses, ever. So it's a reasonable income with absolutely zero risk. Which is part of why I won't quit doing it of my own volition.

I may be forced to, tho. Stars is apparently announcing in mid-April what changes they will make to minimum buy-ins. It's possible that could mean the end of SSing as we know it. I'm hearing conflicting things from 'connected' people. My gut feeling is that it will still be possible, but perhaps with a smaller player pool. Nothing we can do but wait and see.

Regardless, as long as my staker wants to put me in the games, I'll keep doing it (for the no-risk financial reasons mentioned before). But I am going to start fitting in a little 100bb poker. I'm starting to really have a craving for slow action, having solid reads on the whole table, knowing game flow, being confident that you have a significant edge in the game. Obviously a lot of the things that got me sucked into poker in the first place are missing when SSing. Don't get me wrong, I still love the game 20bb's deep. And 24 tables at a time. I burn out on 'having' to play, and it's less fun when getting crushed, but overall I still enjoy it. I'd just like a bit more of 'normal' poker. Partly so that if the SS era does fully end I won't be quite as rusty and I'll have a better sense of what I should play next. But also partly just for fun. So I'm gonna start mixing in a couple short sessions a week of live play, and maybe a few sessions playing somewhere in the 4-8 table range on a site other than Stars. Probably start at the 25c game and try to build it up, with no pressure at all. Looking forward to that.

In the meantime, here's some observations after now having SS'ed for five months:

- it's much, much harder than people think. at least 24-tabling. maintaining focus is a big part of the challenge, but there are also plenty of genuinely tough spots, and therefore plenty of opportunities to develop leaks. while there are less decisions to make than in deep stack poker, there is also less room for error. 'great' win rates are, relatively, small, which means a couple leaks can sink you pretty quick;
- you can learn a lot SSing that can be brought back to deep stack poker. i have a much better sense of what kind of hands certain 'stat types' have in their ranges than i used to, just cause i've seen so many showdowns. i've also learned there is more fold equity than i ever thought (in almost any spot), and that people spaz out in completely nonsensical ways more than i thought. pretty much always in the forums now, when people are discussing ranges, i feel like they're not giving 'air' enough credit. even the passive players go crazy every once in a while.

I actually had a bunch more, but it's late and this is long. So maybe later? Peace out.