Poker Suckz

Nah. I don’t really feel that way. I’m just frustrated. Truthfully I love poker. Even when I can’t get anything going, which is true for like a month now, I still love playing the game. Which might even be a hindrance, by the by, because it maybe makes me a little bit less motivated to improve than I might be if losing sessions really tore me apart.

But yeah, I just finished a session where I lost seven buy-ins and should have been up three in terms of all-in EV (for non-poker players out there, that means that on hands where I got all-in before the river, if I had exactly neutral luck, I would have a thousand more dollars than I do now). All-in EV is of course far and away the most popular way that grinding poker players measure their luck, even though we all know it’s a very small component of our overall luck. It’s just the most easily quantifiable. Now because the poker tracking software spits out a number for you. But even before that, it’s just pretty easy to see that when you get it in with top set against somebody’s flush draw and he gets there, you’re running below expectation.

I was gonna write a lot about poker luck in this blog, because as much as it gets discussed I think it’s still really misunderstood, on a gut level, by most players. But I’m gonna save that for another day, cause even though I ran terrible today I don’t think my general poker malaise has been caused by bad luck. I’ve just been playing bad.

Sure, it might have been started by running poorly, at least relative to my fairly significant upswing through the spring. But even then, if my skill set was higher I would have not been affected by running badly for as long or as much. And of course being mentally tough is a HUGE part of making a go of poker professionally, so if that skill let me down it’s just as legitimate a failure as if I call too many 3bets (which, of course, I invariably do).

But as my results slid, my game (such as it is) definitely started to head south with it. Some tilty tendencies that hadn’t really appeared for a few months started to show up with increasing regularly, till all of a sudden I realize I’m playing my “C” game pretty much all the time. My VPIP is through the roof, which is always a sure sign. Plus, I had a routine (for warm up and session review) that was working fairly well. About a week ago it occurred to me I hadn’t been doing in the last couple weeks, and somehow I haven’t resumed doing it yet. Even though resuming it will help instantly. So that's a pretty epic fail.

The most disappointing thing to me is that I feel right before this stretch started I was really on the verge of starting to play some very good poker. I was slowly but surely improving all the leaks I was aware of, and starting to feel quite grounded and confident (of course, winning does that, but it seemed to go even beyond that).

The upside is that I was well-rolled, so in terms of actual real life dollars this downswing hasn’t cost me anything. I’m prepared to move down another level if need be, so I shouldn’t have to deposit for quite some time if ever. And I’m still withdrawing the rakeback, so making a not insignificant real life side income even while losing in the games (although that can almost be a detriment as I sometimes feel obsessed with getting in the hands so that the rakeback will be significant, when I’m probably better off playing less hours or less tables or both). Plus, my whole poker career has definitely been two steps forward, one step back, and my biggest improvements have always followed discouraging periods. So hopefully that's around the corner.

Bottom line is I remain optimistic, but I obviously need to totally reboot immediately and find the ol' A game. Tempted to take a poker break, but I think it’s really important to learn to play through these periods and get the game back on track quicker. I’m just going to review some videos that I think were most helpful to me in the past, hold myself harshly to the routines I set out for myself, play less tables (don’t worry about rakeback), and get my VPIP and other stats back in line. The results will follow, sooner or later.

Playing/running bad and having the mental toughness to handle downswings are of course inexorably linked. I don't know if it's the single most important thing if you want to be a poker pro, but if not it's tied for first. Cause I definitely cannot expect to do this for a living without considerable ability to shake off losses and recurring bad beats. May as well take advantage of the fine opportunity I currently have to work on that.