Surviving Downswings

Sometimes I pause to consider whether a certain associate/relation/whatnot would make a good poker player. Generally speaking it's because someone has gotten a sense of the free poker moneyz I got rolling in and wants to figure out how to get themselves some, although sometimes I just wonder of my own volition. And I've realized, through these considerations, that I think most anyone is smart enough to do it. I'm sure there are exceptions, but at least among the people I know I think the minimum intelligence requirement is, in the main, easily met.

But that doesn't mean I think most of them could do it. I think the opposite, in fact. And there's a bunch of reasons for that, often involving having the time, and patience, being realistic, humble, confident, focussed, disciplined, etc. The biggest factor, though, is having what the old-time grinders (and some new school ones, too) call 'heart'. I've mainly taken it to mean having the guts to gamble it up. To get a lot of money in the middle without the nuts, for example. And that's definitely a requirement. You can't be thinking about what you could otherwise do with the money you just lost (or what you'll do with what you won, for that matter). It's just your bankroll, business capital. This is all fairly obvious. I think most reasonable people could get themselves to a place where they have this type of 'heart'. Just make sure you're properly bankrolled and you'll pretty quickly get used to the variance (at least the most extremely short term variety).

The harder part, in my humble opinion (or imho, as they say on the interwebz) is handling the middle and long-term variance. Which is under my consideration at this moment because I am just coming out of (at least I hope I'm coming out of) my worse stretch since poker became a profitable game for me. In terms of dollars, anyway. As I'm at higher stakes than I was previously it feels like more, although I'm not sure in terms of BB's. But whatever. That's not the point.

I have gotten much better at handling the downswings, but it still does feel like a kick in the teeth when you bleed bankroll for a few sessions in a row. For a couple obvious reasons.

First of all, there's the fact that you're losing money. Fortunately my bankroll is in order, my plan for downswings seems solid, and so far my discipline in heeding the plan hasn't failed me. So I'm not actually losing any real life money. But even though I understand the bankroll as working capital thing, and even though I know that downswings are an inevitable part of the game, I still can't help but think about the fact that a $1000 losing session (for example) is ultimately a thousand bucks I'll never see again. It's an emotional reaction, not a rational one (even if it is somewhat logical), and it's a harmful way to view it. But view it that way I do, at least more than I should.

Secondly, and probably the main thing here, is the inevitable doubting of abilities. Was I just on a 300k hand heater? Or, alternatively, is my game slipping now? I think almost all poker players have to grapple with the questions, to varying degrees of course. For me, I'm already quite aware of my shortcomings as a poker player. (In fact, it's generally a source of excitement because I'm finding the games -- big picture -- profitable right now yet feel I can get so much better). So when I'm in a downswing it's not a big leap for me to start believing I'm actually, skill-wise, a losing player at the stakes I play. That I straight up suck. Of course I know downswings, and big ones, can and do happen to the very best of players. But that's small comfort when you're in the middle of one. When you are booking losing sessions, I don't think you can feel fully confident that winning sessions are more likely until they start appearing again.

I'm never going to be able to laugh off this type of variance entirely, I know that. I mean, if you purvey a sample of blogs and articles from the most successful online players it won't be long till you come across their own (sometimes agonized) takes on dealing with variance, handling losing streaks. It's simply part of the game, and it's terrible. But I know that handling it as best I can is one of the most important parts of being an online poker pro. And it's easily the single most important part of insulating myself from ever making decisions that cost 'real life' money.

The kind of 'heart' needed to survive the downswings, then, is a little different from the kind needed to make a huge bluff or to call a river shove with 3rd pair. But it's so important. And I'm working on it hard.

I remind myself that losing streaks are for many players, and definitely for me, the time when they have breakthroughs in their games. It's hard to be fully self-critical when you're winning every session, or at least for the criticism to really sink in. But when you're losing, you're magically more receptive. So I know I'll come out of it a better player.

I remind myself that these things are not preordained, that as much as I want to see patterns to these streaks, they don't really exist. Only in hindsight can I call it a streak.

And I remind myself that these are ultimately the moments I can be most confident a poker career is not a foolish pursuit. When I follow my self-imposed guidelines for dropping down stakes, and stay down till I satisfy my own requirements, and when I eventually see my bankroll replenished, without aid of any real life money? That's when I start thinking I might not suck after all.