(Way) Beyond Frustrated

WARNING: MORE WHINING ABOUT POKER CONTAINED HEREIN

I used to think of myself as a lucky poker player. Don't get me wrong. I'm not a crazy person. I don't believe individuals are in possession of some definable amount of luckiness, like there's a luck gene. I just mean over the course of my poker career, I felt like I had been more helped than hindered, results-wise, by variance. I was often to the good in terms of all-in EV, and even according to my selective memory (which many people say will emphasize the times we got unlucky) I seemed to run good.

Like, this one time I was playing in an online donkament, I think it was like $20 entry, big field, and I took it down for like $2500. And the winning hand, I had a huge chip lead and got it in with A7 against QQ. And the flop came 777. Now, of course I would have taken it down with just a single ace, or even just two 7's. And of course I had a big chip lead so may well (probably) would have taken it down anyway. But for whatever reason, I would remember that hand and think about how lucky I seem to be, as opposed to thinking about all the countless times I got it in good and was busted out of tourneys.

So, yeah, I used to think of myself as a lucky poker player. I do not think of myself that way anymore.

As of the session I just wrapped up, I am now down 40 buy-ins in all-in EV over my last 60k hands. I think that works out to 6.66b/100, but whatever it is, it is not something I am able to overcome through my mad poker skills. I'm happy if I post a 2bb/100 winrate while grinding out volume, so obviously the all-in EV massacre is devastating.

For those not that into the pokerz, all-in EV is simply a measurement of what your results would be if you had exactly neutral luck from the moment you got all-in during a hand. It's unpopular in some circles, because it tends to be given too much credit (there are many other ways to have good or back luck in poker than just what happens after you're all-in), and because there's not a thing you can do about what happens after you're all-in, so why pay it any heed.

But there are two things about all-in EV that make it relevant to this discussion. First of all, it's the most easily measured form of poker luck. True, I could go through my database and find out exactly how many times I got AA v KK, as opposed to vice versa, but the different ways you can run good or bad before it gets all-in are practically infinite. It's not feasible to get a meaningful measurement. So all-in EV is the only easily obtained statistic we have that reflects how we're running. As our selective memories can't be trusted (and believe me, my selective memory is telling me I'm getting pummeled by variance way beyond just all-in EV -- if one more fish rivers two pair against my TPTK and then minraises my river bet I'm gonna punch Danlim in the face), all-in EV is kinda all we got.

The second reason it's relevant, is I straight up cannot win at poker if I'm 40 buy-ins below over 60k hands.

Man, downswings are lonely. You can sort of commiserate with other poker players, but you don't really wanna be a downer. And the fact that we all go through these swings makes you feel kinda stupid for being surprised by them. I keep coming across blogs where the author really believes he's going through a downswing unlike anything his readers have experienced. And honestly, I kinda feel that way right now too. So while we can talk about the swings and give each other generic encouragement, fact is we feel we're going through something unique. In fact, accepting that what we are going through is something that happens once in a while to most grinders kinda sucks, cause we want to believe this is like a once-a-century run of shitty luck we're going through. So basically we don't really want to think other people get it, cause we don't like the implications of that.

It's just hard to know where to go from here. There's an argument for just keeping on doing what I'm doing, because the results are not bad if you factor out the all-in EV. I do have a sense, tho, that if I were more +EV in the games I'm playing, I could whether these storms a bit more. Which makes me want to look for a different approach. At the same time, I know my confidence is rocked by this run, which I know means I can't be playing as well as I am able. And I've felt a little scrambly at times, trying different styles and approaches, and have felt some old leaks coming on (in some cases pretty strong). Clicking that call button way too much again. So it seems like I should wait till I don't feel I'm in the worst run of my poker career before making any decisions.

Yet at the same time, how long do I wait? I know my luck today has no bearing on my luck tomorrow, but that cuts both ways. I'm not doomed to bad luck, but I'm not 'due' for good luck either. And I don't want to have to redeposit on the sites. This is supposed to be a profitable undertaking!

So every option is on the table. Going back to live poker. Playing just a couple tables at a time online. Just keeping on with what I've been doing (which is 6-10ish tables). Learning Sit & Go's or grinding tourneys. Mass-tabling as a shortstacker (no, I don't share the hatred of short stacking that many 2+2ers have). I mean, some are more likely than others, but I'm open to most any approach. I love playing poker, but at the end of the day it's about making money. If I can get a clear sense of what path would be most profitable, that would definitely be the one I take at the expense of pretty much any other factors.

Happily, this staking agreement still looks like it's gonna happen (we've agreed on terms, just choosing a start date). Couldn't come at a better time, because I really need somebody's objective input. The fact that he's a great poker mind with a direct investment in my results obviously makes him uniquely suited to weigh in on this stuff.

But if for some reason the staking doesn't happen, I'll still work it out. Notwithstanding all this ranting, I still understand this is part of the game. And I still believe that as long as I don't get lazy (or give up during the bad runs), I can grind a good living out of poker. It's just variance has been a relentless motherfucker the last while, and I needed to bitch about it for a while.